@InProceedings{FreitasBendMach:2019:UrGrRe,
               author = "Freitas, Edmilson Dias de and Bender, Andr{\'e}ia and Machado, 
                         Luiz Augusto Toledo",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Urban Growth and its Relationship with Severe Weather Conditions 
                         over the Metropolitan Area of S{\~a}o Paulo (MASP) – Brazil",
                 year = "2019",
         organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
             abstract = "The potential increase in convective activity and severity, caused 
                         by urban heat island effect, is verified in this work with tests 
                         using BRAMS model, based on the construction of different 
                         urbanization scenarios and on the use of the Town Energy Budget 
                         parameterization. Present and two future urban scenarios, based on 
                         Sao Paulo´s municipality master plan, were constructed in order to 
                         analyse possible impact on formation and development of a severe 
                         weather case occurred over the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo 
                         (MASP). Future urban scenarios for 2030 considered 1) horizontal 
                         growth without changes in the heights of actual buildings and; 2) 
                         a situation that all actual constructions of small dimensions 
                         could be replaced by high rising buildings (vertical growth). 
                         These scenarios were used to evaluate changes in rainfall, 
                         convective parameters, and consequently, in severe weather 
                         probability for the study region. Using the factor separation 
                         method, it was found that the urban area growth is capable to 
                         increase the amount of precipitation, mainly due to the land use 
                         change from rural to urban. In the scenario of building heights 
                         increasing, it was found a tendency for rainfall suppress. The 
                         horizontal urban area growth for 2030 is the major factor 
                         contributing to increase atmospheric instability and wind shear. 
                         The results also show that vertical urban growth can cause 
                         different impacts on atmospheric stability and wind shear. When 
                         considering the interaction between two factors it is possible to 
                         observe an increase in the amount of precipitation and storm 
                         motion to other parts of MASP.",
  conference-location = "San Francisco, CA",
      conference-year = "09-13 dec.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "freitas_urban.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "01 maio 2024"
}